When we think about design, we often focus on interfaces, interactions, and user journeys. But what if design could do more than just refine what exists? What if it could actively shape the future? Jod Kaftan, Head of Product Design & Research at Oracle, believes that futurism and design thinking are deeply intertwined. And by applying strategic foresight, designers can play an active role in shaping tomorrow’s products, industries, and even societies.

At UXDX USA 2024, Kaftan shared how futures thinking (a methodology used by policy makers, strategists, and innovators) can be a game-changer for product teams. His talk explored the cognitive science behind future prediction, the tools for designing preferable futures, and the importance of balancing optimism and realism when imagining what’s next.

The Brain is Wired for the Future

Kaftan started his talk by exploring the neurological basis of futurism. Our brains are constantly engaged in what scientists call active inference, a process where we predict, anticipate, and minimize uncertainty. He explained that human cognition operates in two modes:

• System 1 (Fast Thinking): This is intuitive, emotional, and subconscious—responsible for 95% of our mental activity.
• System 2 (Slow Thinking): This is rational, logical, and deliberative—making up only 5% of our mental processing.

The fascinating takeaway? Our brains are inherently designed to forecast the future; whether it’s predicting traffic patterns during a commute or envisioning how an AI-driven economy might function in a decade. The challenge, however, is that most businesses don’t consciously apply this human ability to their decision-making processes.

The Divide Between Strategy and Foresight

One of the biggest obstacles to future-oriented thinking in organizations is the disconnect between strategy and foresight. Strategy focuses on short-term, revenue-driven goals, while foresight explores long-term possibilities and risks. The two disciplines used to work hand in hand, but today’s corporate environments (driven by quarterly earnings reports and CEO tenure cycles) tend to prioritize immediate gains over long-term resilience.

Kaftan emphasized that when companies neglect foresight, they become vulnerable to disruption. Without structured forecasting, businesses are constantly reacting to change instead of shaping it. This is why futures thinking should be an integral part of product design, not just a tool for executives in corporate strategy roles.

Signals and Drivers: Predicting the Next Big Shift

So how do designers start thinking about the future in a structured way? Kaftan introduced two key concepts: signals and drivers.

• A signal is a specific example of a future possibility already emerging today. For instance, when OpenAI’s ChatGPT passed the U.S. medical licensing exam, that was a signal for the future of AI in healthcare.
• A driver is a larger trend shaping multiple industries—such as automation, climate change, or the decentralization of media.

Understanding these concepts helps teams connect dots between small shifts happening now and the broader trends shaping the future. Product designers who track signals and drivers can anticipate customer needs before competitors even realize they exist.

The Power of Positive and Shadow Imagination

Kaftan also discussed two essential approaches to futures thinking:

• Positive Imagination: Envisioning an ideal future—where new technologies and policies create a better world.
• Shadow Imagination: Anticipating worst-case scenarios to better prepare for risks and failures.

One fascinating example Kaftan cited was a foresight simulation run by the Institute for the Future 14 years before the COVID-19 pandemic. The simulation asked participants to role-play how society would respond to a global virus outbreak and decentralized media environment. Years later, when COVID-19 hit, researchers found that participants in that simulation had lower anxiety levels and felt more prepared—because their brains had already pre-processed potential challenges.

This underscores a critical point: Imagining the future before it arrives helps us adapt more effectively when it does.

Making Foresight Actionable: Tools for Product Teams

While futurism may sound abstract, Kaftan shared practical techniques that product teams can use immediately to integrate foresight into their work. Some of these include:

• Future Scenario Workshops: Design teams can create story-driven scenarios about potential futures and then reverse-engineer how to make (or prevent) them.
• The Futures Wheel: A brainstorming tool where teams explore the second- and third-order effects of an emerging trend (e.g., “What happens if AI can generate entire films in seconds?”).
• Prototyping Strategy Like a Product: Instead of keeping strategy separate from product development, companies can treat strategies like prototypes, refining them based on feedback and real-world testing.

The Role of Design in Shaping the Future

Kaftan argued that designers are uniquely suited to shaping the future because they are trained to bring form to abstract ideas. He quoted legendary designer Christopher Alexander: “Every design is a prediction of the future.” This means that every UI system, design system, or product roadmap is, in essence, a hypothesis about where the world is headed.

So, what does it mean to truly design the future? According to Kaftan, it requires:

• Applying evidence-based imagination: Designers should blend data, emerging technologies, and creativity to shape products that anticipate tomorrow’s needs.
• Embracing uncertainty: Unlike business leaders who crave predictability, designers thrive in ambiguity—an essential skill for shaping long-term vision.
• Engaging with stakeholders early: By collaborating with strategists, technologists, and policymakers, design teams can ensure that their vision for the future isn’t just theoretical but actionable.

The Future is Ours to Design

Kaftan closed his talk with a challenge: What kind of future do we want to create?Rather than waiting for the future to happen to us, he argued that designers have the tools, mindset, and creativity to shape what comes next. Whether it's tackling climate resilience, ethical AI, or the next evolution of digital experiences, the key is moving from passive observation to active intervention.

In a world where technology is evolving faster than ever, those who can imagine, anticipate, and design preferred futures will be the ones leading the next wave of innovation.

Watch Jod Kaftan’s full talk at UXDX USA 2024: https://uxdx.com/session/improving-product-design-with-futurism1/

Or download the UXDX 2024 Post Show Report: https://uxdx.com/post-show-report/